Bitcoin (BTC) surged past $109,000 on Thursday, breaking out of a recent consolidation range and edging close to its all-time high. This upward momentum comes amid improving macroeconomic conditions and renewed investor optimism fueled by easing trade tensions. Market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could offer critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and influence short-term price action.
Bitcoin Traders Await Key Employment Data
As Bitcoin trades above $109,000, many investors are holding off on major moves, opting instead to wait for the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data. This monthly report is a cornerstone economic indicator that can significantly impact the U.S. dollar’s strength and, by extension, risk assets like Bitcoin.
👉 Discover how macroeconomic shifts influence crypto markets and what to watch next.
According to Fxstreet analyst Haresh Menghani, market expectations currently price in a nearly 25% chance of a Fed rate cut during the July 29–30 monetary policy meeting. A September rate cut of 25 basis points is seen as almost certain, with strong consensus anticipating two rate cuts by the end of 2025. These expectations are rooted in cooling inflation and signs of a moderating labor market.
A dovish NFP report—showing weaker-than-expected job growth—could reinforce the case for earlier rate cuts. Lower interest rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, making them more attractive to investors. Conversely, a robust jobs report suggesting a resilient labor market may prompt the Fed to maintain higher rates for longer, potentially triggering a risk-off sentiment and short-term downward pressure on BTC.
Trade Tensions Ease, Boosting Risk Appetite
Geopolitical developments have also contributed to the positive market sentiment. U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new trade agreement with Vietnam, eliminating previously imposed 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports. In return, the U.S. gains tariff-free access to certain Vietnamese markets—a move that signals progress in resolving long-standing trade imbalances.
Additionally, Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration has lifted export license requirements for chip design software to China. This step reflects ongoing efforts to ease technological restrictions between Washington and Beijing, further calming investor nerves amid prolonged U.S.-China trade tensions.
These policy shifts have bolstered global risk appetite, benefiting not only equities but also digital assets like Bitcoin. However, traders should remain cautious: the current tariff suspension is set to expire on July 9. Several nations are racing to finalize trade deals before this deadline, which could introduce volatility if negotiations stall or fail.
Moreover, Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB), recently passed by the Senate and returning to the House for final approval, could introduce additional fiscal stimulus. If enacted before Friday, it may increase government spending and money supply—factors historically supportive of asset inflation, including cryptocurrencies.
Institutional Demand Rises as Spot ETFs See Strong Inflows
Institutional interest in Bitcoin is showing signs of resurgence. According to SoSoValue, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $407.78 million in net inflows on Wednesday, reversing the previous day’s outflows of $342.25 million. This shift suggests growing confidence among institutional players and could provide sustained momentum for further price appreciation.
👉 See how institutional inflows are reshaping the Bitcoin landscape in 2025.
A continued trend of strong ETF inflows may be crucial for Bitcoin to break through its previous all-time high of $111,980, reached on May 22. Sustained buying pressure from regulated financial products adds legitimacy and liquidity to the market, reducing reliance on retail speculation.
Supporting the bullish narrative is the expansion of the U.S. M2 money supply, which grew 4.5% year-over-year in May, reaching $21.94 trillion. An increasing money supply often correlates with higher asset prices, as more capital chases limited investment opportunities.
Further reinforcing optimism, Standard Chartered Bank has issued an aggressive Bitcoin price forecast, projecting BTC could reach $135,000 by the end of 2025—and potentially climb as high as $200,000 under favorable macro conditions. Such institutional endorsements help anchor long-term investor confidence.
Technical Outlook: Bullish Momentum Builds
Bitcoin successfully broke above its recent consolidation zone, closing above the key resistance level at $108,355. The breakout was accompanied by a 3% gain on Wednesday, followed by continued upward movement into Thursday trading.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 59 and is trending upward from the neutral 50 level—indicating strengthening bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) formed a bullish crossover last week and continues to show rising green histogram bars above the zero line. This technical configuration supports the view of an emerging uptrend.
If buying pressure persists, Bitcoin could target its record high of $111,980 in the near term. A decisive break above this level could open the door to uncharted territory, potentially unlocking $120,000 or higher.
However, a pullback remains possible. Should Bitcoin close below $108,355—the former resistance now acting as support—short-term correction may extend toward the lower boundary of the consolidation range at $105,333. Traders should monitor volume and momentum indicators closely to assess whether this is a healthy retracement or the start of a broader reversal.
👉 Learn how to interpret key technical indicators for smarter crypto trading decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and functions as a decentralized digital currency. It operates without central control or intermediaries, enabling peer-to-peer transactions across a global network.
What are altcoins?
Altcoins refer to all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. While some consider Ethereum a special category due to its foundational role in smart contracts, most classify it as an altcoin. Litecoin, created as a fork of Bitcoin’s protocol, is widely recognized as the first major "scrypt-based" altcoin.
What are stablecoins?
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to reserve assets like the U.S. dollar or gold. They combine blockchain efficiency with price stability, serving as a bridge between traditional finance and digital asset markets.
Why does Bitcoin dominance matter?
Bitcoin dominance measures BTC’s market cap relative to the total crypto market cap. High dominance often signals investor preference for Bitcoin during uncertain markets or early bull phases. A decline may indicate capital rotation into altcoins, often preceding altseason rallies.
How do macroeconomic factors affect Bitcoin?
Bitcoin responds to macro trends such as interest rates, inflation, and monetary policy. Lower interest rates and expanding money supply tend to boost BTC prices by increasing risk appetite and reducing fiat currency appeal.
Can ETF inflows drive Bitcoin’s price?
Yes. Spot Bitcoin ETFs allow traditional investors to gain exposure without holding crypto directly. Sustained inflows reflect growing institutional adoption and can create consistent buying pressure, supporting long-term price growth.
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