The cryptocurrency market has entered a period of sharp correction, with Ethereum (ETH) recording its worst first-quarter performance since 2018—plunging by a staggering 45%. This broad-based weakness has heavily impacted altcoins, triggering steep declines and growing investor concern.
Among the hardest-hit assets, Stellar (XLM) has lost 47% of its value over the past 90 days. However, recent price action suggests a potential shift in momentum. Over the last seven days, XLM has gained 5%, signaling renewed buying interest. More importantly, its current chart pattern bears a striking resemblance to a formation that preceded an explosive rally back in late 2017.
👉 Discover how historical patterns could signal a major XLM breakout soon.
A Familiar Chart Pattern Emerges
In late 2017, Stellar (XLM) delivered one of the most remarkable rallies of the bull cycle. The asset surged over 3,500% from a base near $0.0025 to nearly $0.07 in just a few months. As quickly as it rose, it collapsed—correcting more than 81% and bottoming out around $0.011.
What happened next is now a key point of analysis for traders today.
The 50-week moving average (MA) acted as a critical support level, halting the decline and laying the foundation for a powerful reversal. From that base, XLM launched an extraordinary rally—gaining over 4,900% and cementing its status as one of the top-performing altcoins during that era.
Fast forward to 2025: history may be repeating itself.
This cycle began with XLM surging from approximately $0.09 to a peak of $0.64—an increase of more than 600%. It was followed by a sharp correction, shedding 67% of its value before stabilizing.
Once again, the price found support at the 50-week moving average—the same technical level that proved pivotal in 2017. This zone, now highlighted on current charts, is being watched closely as a potential launchpad for the next leg up.
Since touching this support, XLM has begun a steady recovery, forming higher lows and building bullish momentum. As of this week, the token is trading above $0.24, reflecting sustained buying pressure and reigniting speculation that a major move could be on the horizon.
Why the 50-Week Moving Average Matters
The 50-week MA is more than just a line on a chart—it represents long-term investor sentiment and institutional-grade support. When prices hold above this level after a deep correction, it often signals that selling pressure has been absorbed and accumulation is underway.
For XLM, holding above this average suggests that:
- Long-term holders are stepping in.
- Market structure remains intact despite short-term volatility.
- The foundation for another rally may already be in place.
This technical resilience increases confidence among traders who believe we could be witnessing the final consolidation phase before a breakout.
👉 See how on-chain data and technical patterns align for XLM’s next surge.
Key Similarities Between 2017 and 2025
While no two market cycles are identical, the parallels between XLM’s performance in 2017 and 2025 are difficult to ignore:
| Pattern Element | 2017 Cycle | 2025 Cycle |
|---|---|---|
| Initial Surge | +3,500% from base | +600% from base |
| Maximum Drawdown | Over 81% correction | Around 67% correction |
| Support Level | Held at 50-week MA | Holding at 50-week MA |
| Post-Support Action | Formed higher lows, then exploded | Currently forming higher lows |
| Market Sentiment | Recovering from panic | Shifting from fear to optimism |
These similarities suggest that XLM may be setting up for another significant upward move—if macro conditions remain favorable and investor confidence continues to rebuild.
On-Chain Metrics Add to the Bull Case
Beyond price charts, on-chain data provides further validation of strengthening fundamentals:
- Active addresses have stabilized after months of decline, indicating renewed network usage.
- Exchange outflows have increased, suggesting investors are moving XLM to private wallets—often a sign of long-term holding.
- Supply distribution shows fewer tokens in "loss" positions, reducing the risk of panic selling.
Together, these metrics reinforce the idea that the worst may be behind XLM—and that smart money could already be positioning for what’s next.
Could This Be the Final Dip?
Many traders are asking: Is this the last chance to buy XLM before it takes off?
Given that:
- The 50-week MA has held firm,
- Momentum is building,
- And historical patterns are aligning,
It’s reasonable to consider this phase as a potential final accumulation zone before a breakout.
If history rhymes—and if broader crypto markets stabilize—XLM could see a multi-month rally similar to what unfolded after its 2017 rebound.
Of course, no prediction is guaranteed. Market conditions evolve rapidly, and external factors like regulatory news or macroeconomic shifts can influence outcomes.
But for those tracking technical patterns and long-term trends, the current setup offers compelling reasons for optimism.
👉 Explore real-time analytics that could confirm XLM’s next breakout signal.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the significance of the 50-week moving average for XLM?
A: The 50-week MA acts as a long-term support level. When XLM bounces from this zone—as it did in 2017 and appears to be doing in 2025—it often precedes strong upward momentum, making it a key indicator for traders.
Q: How does the current XLM correction compare to past cycles?
A: The 67% drop seen recently is less severe than the 81% fall in 2017. However, both corrections ended at or near the 50-week MA, suggesting healthy market digestion rather than a broken trend.
Q: Can XLM repeat its 4,900% rally from 2017?
A: While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, similar technical setups increase the probability of outsized gains. A repeat rally would depend on overall market recovery, adoption growth, and investor sentiment.
Q: What price levels should I watch for confirmation of a breakout?
A: A sustained move above $0.30 would signal strengthening momentum. A break above $0.45 could open the path toward previous highs near $0.64—and potentially beyond.
Q: Is Stellar still relevant in today’s crypto landscape?
A: Yes. Stellar remains focused on cross-border payments and financial inclusion, partnering with institutions worldwide. Its low fees and fast settlement continue to attract real-world use cases.
Q: Should I invest in XLM now based on technical patterns?
A: Technical analysis provides insight but should be combined with fundamental research. Always assess your risk tolerance and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Final Thoughts
Stellar (XLM) is showing one of the most compelling technical setups in the altcoin market today. With its price stabilizing at the historically significant 50-week moving average, momentum building, and on-chain activity improving, the conditions for a major rally appear increasingly favorable.
While the broader crypto market remains volatile, assets like XLM—with strong technical foundations and real-world utility—are well-positioned to lead the next phase of growth.
Whether history fully repeats or merely rhymes, one thing is clear: XLM is back on traders’ radar, and the coming weeks could determine whether this is just another bounce—or the beginning of something much bigger.
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