The crypto market has been buzzing with excitement as Bitcoin inches closer to the psychological $100,000 milestone. Since the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, BTC has surged dramatically, outpacing nearly every other asset in the space. Yet, one glaring trend stands out: while Bitcoin dominates, altcoins have remained relatively stagnant.
Bitcoin’s share of the total crypto market cap continues to climb, raising a critical question for investors: Is this the peak of the bull run, or are we still in an early phase with more growth — and an altseason — yet to come?
To answer this, we’ve analyzed key market indicators over the past four years, including funding rates, trading volumes, stablecoin supply, and market sentiment. Let’s break it down.
Key Data Sources and Methodology
This analysis draws from a range of reliable sources:
- Bitcoin price: Spot data from CoinGecko, futures from Binance
- Futures funding rates & trading volume: Binance Futures
- Stablecoin total supply: CoinGecko and DefiLlama
- Crypto market cap & Bitcoin dominance: CoinGecko
- Nasdaq trading volume: Yahoo Finance
All data has been smoothed using the Savitzky-Golay filter (30-day window, 2nd-order polynomial) to highlight trends rather than noise. The exception is stablecoin supply, which is shown in raw form due to its structural significance.
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Historical Patterns: What Preceded Past Market Peaks?
Understanding where we are today requires looking back at previous cycles — particularly the explosive 2021 bull run and the current 2023–2025 cycle.
Funding Rates: A Leading Indicator of Market Tops
Funding rates reflect the cost of holding perpetual futures positions and are a strong proxy for market sentiment. Historically, extreme funding rates have preceded price tops.
In early 2021, three clear peaks in funding rates coincided with Bitcoin price levels of $40,000, $45,000, and $60,000 — each signaling overheated bullishness before pullbacks occurred. Notably, the funding rate peak consistently came before the price peak, making it a valuable leading indicator.
Fast forward to 2024–2025: despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, funding rates have remained surprisingly tame. The highest rate in 2024 was just above 0.1% on March 5, when BTC traded around $66,839. Compared to the wild swings of 2021, today’s market appears more disciplined — suggesting euphoria has not yet taken over.
Active Buy Volume: From Lagging to Leading Signal
Another powerful metric is active buy volume — the amount of futures contracts buyers are aggressively purchasing (as opposed to passive limit orders).
In 2021, active buy volume often spiked after price peaks, indicating traders were trying to “catch the falling knife” during corrections. It acted as a lagging or even contrarian signal.
But in the current cycle, the pattern has flipped. Since late 2023, active buy volume has surged ahead of or in tandem with price increases, peaking notably on November 21, 2024. This shift suggests stronger conviction among traders and a more mature market structure — possibly driven by institutional participation via ETFs.
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Stablecoin Supply: The Fuel Behind the Rally
Stablecoins like USDT and USDC act as dry powder for market rallies. When their supply grows, it often signals incoming liquidity.
During the 2021 bull run, Tether (USDT) minting exploded amid loose monetary policy and retail frenzy. The correlation between rising stablecoin supply and crypto market cap was clear over multi-month trends.
Today, stablecoin growth has been more moderate. While there’s been a steady increase since late 2023, it lacks the parabolic surge seen in 2021. This suggests liquidity is expanding sustainably rather than explosively, reducing the risk of a sudden blow-off top.
Bitcoin Dominance vs. Altseason Potential
One of the most debated topics is whether an altseason is imminent.
Historically, altcoins tend to outperform after Bitcoin stabilizes following its first major leg up. In 2021, Bitcoin’s dominance dropped from ~70% to below 50%, as capital rotated into altcoins.
Currently, Bitcoin’s dominance remains elevated. Altcoin market cap share sits at around 46%, down from highs above 70% but still far from the 30% lows seen before previous altseasons kicked off.
For context:
- January 2021: Altcoin market share bottomed at ~30% → altseason began shortly after
- Mid-February 2021: Reached ~40% → strong momentum phase
- November 2024: At ~46% → still in early consolidation phase
This implies that while the first wave of Bitcoin’s rally is likely complete, the altseason may still be weeks or months away — especially if BTC continues absorbing capital.
Market Activity: Are We Hitting a Trading Peak?
In mid-November 2024, on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa noted a stunning statistic: Binance’s trading volume over 30 days exceeded Nasdaq by 10% and was double that of NYSE.
This isn’t isolated. On November 12, Bitcoin futures volume hit the fourth-highest daily total in four years, behind only peaks on March 5, August 5, and February 28, 2024 — all during strong bullish momentum.
But does high volume mean we’re at the top?
Looking back:
- The top three volume spikes in 2024 occurred near local highs
- The fifth-largest volume day was May 19, 2021 — infamous for a massive correction
High volume can signal both climax and continuation. However, when combined with moderate funding rates and no widespread euphoria, it’s more likely we’re seeing institutional accumulation rather than retail mania.
So, Where Are We Now?
Let’s synthesize the signals:
| Indicator | Current Status | Historical Context |
|---|---|---|
| Funding Rate | Low (~0.05%) | Peaked at >0.2% in 2021 |
| Active Buy Volume | All-time high (Nov 21) | Now leading price |
| Total Trading Volume | Near peak levels | Seen before corrections |
| Stablecoin Supply | Steady growth | No parabolic surge |
| Altcoin Market Share | ~46% | Far from altseason trigger |
Conclusion: Mid-Stage Bull Market
We are likely in the mid-phase of a broader bull cycle — past the initial Bitcoin breakout but before the full altseason rotation.
Key characteristics:
- Bitcoin remains dominant, absorbing capital via ETF inflows
- Markets are active but not euphoric
- Volume is high, but sentiment remains rational
- Altcoins are consolidating, preparing for potential breakout
This setup mirrors early 2021 more than late 2021 — meaning there could still be room for both Bitcoin to rise further and for altcoins to catch up later.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is $100K Bitcoin the top of the bull market?
A: Not necessarily. While $100K is a psychological milestone, historical patterns show price can continue rising after such levels are hit — especially if macro conditions remain supportive.
Q: How do I know when altseason is starting?
A: Watch for Bitcoin dominance dropping below 50%, increased VC activity in Layer 1 projects, and strong momentum in mid-cap altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, and emerging ecosystems.
Q: Are high trading volumes always a warning sign?
A: Not always. High volume during accumulation phases can indicate institutional interest. It becomes concerning only when paired with extreme leverage and euphoric sentiment.
Q: What role do ETFs play in this cycle?
A: Bitcoin spot ETFs have brought in sustained institutional demand, creating a more stable base for price growth compared to the retail-driven 2017 and 2021 rallies.
Q: Can we trust funding rates anymore?
A: Yes, but with nuance. They remain useful leading indicators, though lower volatility in recent years means extreme readings are less common.
Q: Should I sell Bitcoin and rotate into altcoins now?
A: Timing altseason is difficult. A balanced approach — holding core BTC exposure while gradually adding selective alts — may offer better risk-adjusted returns.
Final Thoughts
The current bull market is different — more mature, more liquid, and more institutionally driven. While Bitcoin’s march toward $100K grabs headlines, the real story lies beneath: a gradual shift in market structure that could extend this cycle longer than previous ones.
By monitoring key indicators like funding rates, active buy volume, and stablecoin supply, investors can stay ahead of turning points — not just react to them.
Now is not the time to panic at highs, nor to FOMO blindly. It’s the time to analyze, position wisely, and prepare for what comes next.