Shiba Inu (SHIB), once a front-runner in the meme coin frenzy, has entered a prolonged period of consolidation and decline following a steep 65% drop from its peak. Despite a recent bounce at key support levels, technical indicators and market sentiment continue to lean heavily bearish. As the broader crypto market shows signs of recovery, SHIB remains under pressure, raising questions about its long-term viability and potential for resurgence.
This analysis dives into the current price action, technical structure, and underlying market dynamics shaping Shiba Inu’s trajectory—offering clarity for investors navigating this uncertain phase.
Shiba Inu Finds Temporary Support After Sharp Decline
Since reaching a cycle high in March 2024, Shiba Inu has struggled to maintain momentum. While other meme coins like PEPE and FLOKI achieved new all-time highs later in the year, SHIB failed to follow suit, forming a lower high in December before breaking down decisively.
The subsequent 65% plunge brought the price down to a critical support zone near $0.0000143, where it finally stabilized. This level aligns with both a long-term horizontal support and the former ascending trend line that had held since August 2024—now acting as resistance.
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The bounce from this confluence of support levels has created a temporary stabilization, forming a horizontal trading range between $0.0000143 and $0.0000340. On the weekly chart, this appears as a potential base formation, with the most recent candle showing bullish characteristics.
However, appearances can be deceiving.
Despite the short-term rebound, momentum indicators remain deeply entrenched in bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is declining and sits below 50, signaling weakening buying pressure. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed below zero and continues to trend downward—both strong signals of ongoing selling dominance.
Daily Chart Confirms Bearish Trend Reversal
Zooming into the daily timeframe reveals further confirmation of a structural shift. SHIB recently broke below its long-standing ascending support trend line, a technical level that had provided consistent floor support since mid-2024. Such breaks are often considered high-probability signals of trend reversals—especially when accompanied by strong volume and follow-through.
Although a bullish candle appeared on February 3, suggesting short-term buying interest, this may simply represent a relief rally rather than the start of a sustainable recovery. Historically, such rallies occur after sharp declines and offer temporary respite before the prior trend resumes.
Market structure now favors bears, with resistance overhead at $0.000028 and $0.000034. Any attempt to reclaim these levels will face intense selling pressure unless accompanied by significant bullish catalysts—none of which are currently visible on the horizon.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Is SHIB in a New Downward Cycle?
One of the most compelling frameworks for understanding SHIB’s current trajectory comes from Elliott Wave Theory. According to this model, the entire upward move from late 2023 to early 2024 may have been nothing more than an A-B-C corrective pattern, countering the previous bear market leg.
If this interpretation holds, the current phase marks the beginning of a new five-wave impulse downward, with SHIB now likely in Wave 3—typically the longest and most aggressive leg of a downtrend.
While this outlook is bearish in nature, it also suggests that the initial leg of the decline (Wave 1 and Wave 2) has already completed. This increases the probability of a corrective relief rally in the near term—potentially pushing price back toward $0.000025 or higher—before the next leg down resumes.
Such rallies often trap optimistic investors who mistake them for trend reversals. Traders should remain cautious and await clear signs of structural reconfirmation—such as a weekly close above $0.000034—before considering any bullish positioning.
Why Is Shiba Inu Losing Momentum?
Several factors contribute to SHIB’s fading relevance in the current crypto cycle:
- Lack of Innovation: Unlike other projects enhancing utility through layer-2 solutions or ecosystem expansion, SHIB’s development momentum has slowed.
- Reduced Social Engagement: On-chain data shows declining wallet activity and social mentions compared to peak periods.
- Market Rotation: Capital is shifting toward AI-driven tokens, real-world asset (RWA) projects, and next-gen Layer 1 blockchains—leaving meme coins behind.
- Regulatory Scrutiny: Increased attention on unregulated tokens may be discouraging institutional interest in speculative assets like SHIB.
These headwinds reinforce the technical bearishness, suggesting that SHIB’s price action reflects deeper structural weaknesses—not just temporary market sentiment.
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Can Shiba Inu Recover in 2025?
While nothing is impossible in crypto, the path to recovery for Shiba Inu appears increasingly narrow. For SHIB to reclaim its previous highs, it would need:
- A massive bull run surpassing the 2024 peak
- Strong narrative-driven demand (e.g., exchange listings, celebrity endorsements)
- Significant utility upgrades or ecosystem breakthroughs
- Broad market rotation back into low-cap meme assets
Currently, none of these conditions are in place. More realistically, any upward movement is likely to be part of a corrective bounce within a larger bear market, offering limited upside before renewed selling pressure takes over.
Some analysts suggest that if bearish momentum continues unchecked, SHIB could eventually test its 2022 lows—a scenario that would mark a full cycle reset.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Has Shiba Inu hit bottom yet?
A: Not definitively. While $0.0000143 is strong support, there’s no confirmation that selling pressure has exhausted. Further downside remains possible if market conditions worsen.
Q: Is now a good time to buy SHIB?
A: High risk. With technicals bearish and no clear catalysts, buying at current levels is speculative. Conservative investors should wait for signs of trend reversal.
Q: What price levels should I watch for SHIB?
A: Key resistance: $0.000028 and $0.000034. Key support: $0.0000143 (break below targets $0.000010). A close above $0.000034 could signal trend change.
Q: Could SHIB reach $1?
A: No realistic scenario supports SHIB reaching $1 given its circulating supply (over 589 trillion tokens). Even $0.01 would require a market cap exceeding $5 trillion—unfeasible in current conditions.
Q: How does SHIB compare to other meme coins?
A: PEPE and FLOKI have outperformed due to stronger community narratives and exchange listings. SHIB lacks comparable momentum despite its first-mover advantage.
Q: What would trigger a SHIB recovery?
A: A major ecosystem upgrade, viral adoption event, or broad meme coin resurgence during a late-stage bull market could reignite interest.
Final Outlook: Bears Remain in Control
Shiba Inu’s recent bounce offers temporary relief but does not alter the dominant bearish trend. Technical indicators, wave patterns, and market sentiment all align toward continued downside pressure in the medium to long term.
While short-term traders may find opportunities within the current range, long-term investors should approach with caution. Without fundamental catalysts or structural improvements, SHIB risks fading into irrelevance as newer narratives take center stage in 2025.
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For now, the message is clear: the bears are still in charge, and until there’s undeniable evidence of trend reversal, Shiba Inu remains a high-risk asset in a downtrend.
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